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Short Takes Archives



Are you afraid of this market? You should be! The S&P Index is nearly off 20% from it's high in April....and has lost 7% this year!

Our High Income Model Portfolio is up 6% in a down market. You might think this is impossible, but it's not for income oriented investors.

The Panhandle Portfolios High Income Model Portfolio has enjoyed a spectacular first half. The Model Portfolio’s performance is positive in a negative stock market environment as the following schedule illustrates:

2010

Model Portfolio

S&P 500 Stock Index

1st QTR 9.6% 5.4%
2nd QTR -3.2% -11.4%
1st Half 6.2% -6.7%

Click HERE for the since inception monthly performance details.

NEW RESEARCH

Hiding in Plain Sight
4 Trends Most Investors are Missing

July 21, 2010

Each of these trends is already in place...in some cases, for many years. But the financial consequences of these trends are now upon us, and it will be devastating to many.

The Trends Are:

DEFEASENCE

SHARE BUYBACKS

ZERO COST TRADING

MUNICIPAL ENTITLEMENTS

These trends are well established but the investment implications are either poorly understood or ignored.

The Bible promises us “We will reap what we sow”. The reaping is beginning but most investors will understand these trends only after their capital is gone.

A great deal of research has gone into indentifying and explaining these trends and their inevitable investment implications. Therefore, this valuable report is only available free to long term subscribers.

Contact Us if you are interested in purchasing this report.

 

August 23, 2010

Short Takes...

Associated Press- New York/ Bond Bubble Fears Return as Investors Flee Stocks... Bad economic news sent investors out of stocks and into US Treasuries this past week, extending a rally that has defied some of Wall Street’s best minds. Treasury bonds maturing in 20 years or more have returned 2% this year while stocks have lost 2%.

Mike's Take...

..."This is worst kind of reporting and should be totally ignored. Investors are not “fleeing” stocks and there is not a bond bubble. So, I am mystified what this reporter thinks there is to fear. What total nonsense!

Let’s review the scene. Banks are paying a paltry 1% to 2% on certificates of deposit. The stock market is returning a similarly paltry 2% in dividends. There are 14,599,000 unemployed and nearly 30 million underemployed. Not enough income from banks; not enough income from stocks; and no income for the unemployed.

It should not surprise anyone that individuals and investors are looking for more income. One of the few places they can find more income is in the corporate bond market. Not the US Treasury market. The result has been $500 billion plus has gone into bonds in the past 18 months.

Does this means there is a “bubble”. No; not at all. It simply means individuals and investors are seeking more income. As long as America has surplus assets in abundance (unemployed workers, idle factories and empty houses) and a government that hobbles our economy, there will be slow economic growth, low inflation, and limited sources of income. These are the forces that will continue driving the bond market higher."

August 13, 2010

Short Takes...

Marcus & Millichap Research/ Government Job Cuts Stall Employment Growth. Facing substantial budget shortfalls, state and local governments eliminated 48,000 positions in July. These losses combined with an 11,000 worker reduction at the federal level and the release of 143,000 temporary census positions generated a total downsizing of 202,000 positions in July. These cuts overwhelmed the 71,000 private sectors jobs added. And another 180,000 temporary census worker jobs will be eliminated in the next several months.

Mike's Take...

…"This is pretty grim news. America needs to add about 350,000 more employees to our workforce EVERY MONTH in order for unemployment to start decreasing. Don’t forget, we also have over 100,000 new entrants into the job market we need to find jobs for every month.

If you look at the graph above showing the additions (blue) and terminations (red) of the monthly employment trends over the past five years, you will see we need the blue line to be much higher than it’s been in any month for the last five years. Since early 2008 it has been negative or only slightly positive.

I have said in this column many times we need SALES, SALES, and more SALES to get our economy going again. That is not possible without more JOBS, JOBS, and JOBS!

The sad part is that potential employers, especially small businesses, the real engine of employment, see no reason to add employees. The disincentives significantly out weight any incentives. Taxes are too high, regulations are too pervasive and profit prospects are too dim.  

So far, all government action, both monetary and fiscal stimulus has failed. Any government action taken that does not redress this imbalance will fail.

WAKE UP AMERICA! We need LESS government and more incentives to take risk."

Short Takes Archives

 

"Do You Have Enough Legs?"

If you think your Social Security benefits are going to help you in retirement, think again. You probably believe in the Tooth Fairy and Santa Claus too. Read on.

"A Word I Never Heard"

There is now a permanent disconnect between the owners of a publicly traded company and the company. What should Investors do? Read on.

"2010: What About Earnings?"

The Stock market was up 26.5% in 2009 (S&P 500 Stock Index). But this was without the benefit of earnings. Who’s likely to grow earnings in 2010? Read on.

"Professional Money Manager Secrets"

Do you ever wonder why and how professional money managers routinely outperform the market? Why they win and you lose? Do you want to know their secrets...Read on


INCOME 5X THE S&P!

Do you own stock market investments that pay paltry dividends?

The dividend yield of the S&P 500 Stock Index on December 31, 2008 was 3.14%, and the average for the first eight years of this decade was 1.6%, up slightly from its all time low of 1.14% in 1999.

At the current yield (8/31/2009) of 2.1% it will take 48 years to recover your investment! And the current yield is not due to companies paying you more. In fact, many are cutting dividends. The yield has increased because of the price decline in the S&P 500 index. So, you are not getting more income from owning the S&P Index or a mutual fund that mimics the S&P Index.

However, it may surprise you to know corporate dividends have been expanding rapidly, as you will see in the schedule and graph below.

Do You Need More Income?

More income is available in many strong, creditworthy, and safe stocks & bonds. Investing in safe, high yield stocks and bonds is easy. Let me show you. The portfolios we are building currently provide income of more than 5x the level of income provided by investing in the S&P Index.

Corporate dividends are tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) and show a continuous and sustained increase. The following schedule compares all corporate dividends with the dividends paid by those companies in the S&P 500 Index.

The S&P 500 Stock Index, which covers about 77% of the US stock market, currently pays a dividend yield of 2.1%. In 2008, the S&P 500 Index companies paid out dividends totaling $247 billion, the same level as 2007.

Dividends Paid

Individuals received $834 billion in dividends in 2008, an increase of 6% over 2007 dividends. The S&P dividends were just 30% of the total. So, dividends are being paid and are available, but are not coming from the S&P 500 Stock Index companies.

While total S&P dividends remained the same for the last two years, total dividends paid INCREASED even in the current deep recession!

Is this is just a temporary event? The 20 year chart below shows this is a continuing trend. In 1988 S&P dividends were 52% of total dividends paid. This percentage has dropped steadily over the past twenty years and now stands at 30%.

While S&P dividends have increased nearly four fold over the last 20 years, total dividends paid have increased seven fold. You will note the difference has widened in the last several years.


Total dividends have grown from $130 billion in 1988 to $834 billion twenty years later, a compound growth rate of 9.7%. During the same time, S&P dividends have gone from $67 billion to $247 billion, a compound growth rate of 6.7% per year.

Except for 2008, there has been a steady decline in the S&P yield over the last twenty years. And the payout ratio of 40% in 1988 has declined to 34% last year.

The pattern is clear… this is a long term trend for steady growth in total dividends. But these dividends are not coming from the companies in the S&P 500 index. And S&P Index companies distribute a smaller portion of their profits and low dividends relative to their stock price.

So where are these High-Yield Investments?

I have shown you the absolute level of dividends and its rapid growth. These dividends come from two sources in addition to the dividends paid by the S&P 500 Index… private companies and public companies not in the S&P 500 index.

There is no information that tells us how much of the available dividends come from private companies, which is not available to us, and public companies which is.

But I can tell you there are plenty of public companies offering lush dividends. I have constructed a universe of established and creditworthy companies that pay high dividends. This universe is more than 700 companies. And when I add in the bond universe, we have an investment universe of over 1,000 companies.
 
Public companies are in two categories: stable companies in mature industries, and companies with special tax characteristics, such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), publicly traded partnerships (PTPs), and royalty trusts.

These two categories give us a large universe of about 700 potential investments, 200 more than contained in the S&P 500 Stock Index. In addition, I will add high yield corporate bonds to the portfolio when I feel it is appropriate.

Our universe allows me to easily build a broadly diversified and stable high income portfolio.

My objective is to provide high levels of income to individual investors.

The return objective of the Panhandle High Income Portfolio is 15% a year, made up of 10% income and 5% capital gains. Currently the portfolio yields 11.3% which is 5x more income than the S&P 500 Index.

One hundred thousand dollars invested in this portfolio will pay you over $12,000 every year. Over time your payments will increase.

The following is a summary of our High Income Portfolio:

As you can see, this is a broadly diversified portfolio with exposure to six different sectors. The portfolio has stability with investment in utilities, healthcare, and retail. The finance investments are not banks as there is just too much uncertainty right now. And we have a bond and preferred stock investment that give us rock solid income and potential price appreciation.

The expected return from the Panhandle High Income Portfolio is two thirds income (10%) and one third capital gain (5%). The reason the capital gain is modest is because our portfolio companies distribute their profits to us, the shareholders. This means our portfolio companies grow slowly. This is OK because high dividends allow you to grow your portfolio more rapidly.

Do You Need More Income?

If so, you have come to the right place. I build and manage high income portfolios. The high income portfolio illustrated above is made up of safe and growing investments that pay you five times the income of the S&P 500 Stock Index. Full Details of Portfolio

Get Your FREE Stock Analysis Full Report & Payment Calendar Now!

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